Two-Year-Old Champ Returns to the Races

Horseracing Betting Lines

03/12/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In what could be the sign of the times, Lookin At Lucky, last year's Eclipse Award-winning two-year-old, will have just two prep races prior to the Kentucky Derby. If the Bob Baffert-trained colt winds up crossing the wire first at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May, he'll become the fourth straight Kentucky Derby winner with only two previous starts in his three-year-old campaign.

Lookin At Lucky's 2010 journey begins this Saturday in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park as the three time Grade 1 winner hasn't raced since a three- quarter length win over Noble's Promise in the Cash Call Futurity at Santa Anita last December. The son of Smart Strike sports five wins in six career starts, with the lone defeat coming by only a head in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, a race he began from post 13.

Will he be able to make his return to the track a winning one? If the answer is yes, then he will certainly quiet the critics that say he's just a synthetic specialist that doesn't overpower his rivals with convincing authority. Don't forget, we witnessed a significant number of horses make the transition from Pro-Ride to dirt just one year ago, including I Want Revenge, who rolled in the Gotham Stakes, and Papa Clem, who took care of business in the Arkansas Derby.

Still, both those colts were not making their first start of the year in those races and they weren't also in need of a change in equipment - two strikes against Lookin At Lucky in the Rebel. Not only will this be his initial 2010 challenge, but he'll be wearing blinkers for the first time in his career. In addition, the half-brother to Kensei hasn't been tearing up the track in his morning workouts as other Bob Baffert-trained horses usually do.

The jury is still out on just how good Lookin At Lucky really is so it's best to stay away from him on Saturday.

Another Kentucky Derby contender that also begins his three-year-old season in the Rebel is one of Lookin At Lucky's old rivals.

Noble's Promise, who finished within a length of the two-year-old champ in both the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the Cash Call Futurity, has been working much more efficiently of late with a pair of "second fastest of the day" five- furlong works at Gulfstream Park. Moreover, he's already won off a 5 1/2-month layoff in his two-year-old campaign so there's a decent chance he can turn the tables on Lookin At Lucky this Saturday. However, like his nemesis, he'll be racing over conventional dirt for the first time.

One more horse making his 2010 debut in the Rebel is Uh Oh Bango. With two wins and three seconds in five lifetime starts, the underrated gelding, who finished just a neck behind Rule in the Delta Jackpot Stakes last December, is the possible upsetter in the field.

Sired by Top Hit, Uh Oh Bango gets his speed from his dam side but endurance from the sire line. Top Hit's mother is a half-sister to millionaire Vanlandingham (who won this race in 1984) while his granddam is a half-sister to 1980 Belmont Stakes winner Temperence Hill.

Even with the likes of Lookin At Lucky, Noble's Promise and Uh Oh Bango in the race, the smart money should go towards another horse by the name of Dublin.

The son of Afleet Alex was just as impressive in losing the Southwest Stakes on February 20 as Eskendereya was in winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes the same afternoon. It was Dublin's first start since November 1st and his initial race after undergoing throat surgery over the winter.

He must have forgotten how to break from the gate along the way as the D. Wayne Lukas-trained colt got off a step slow and then stumbled three strides later. Approaching the backstretch, the 7-2 third choice found himself a good 12 lengths behind the speedy Conveyance. Dublin then zipped his middle half-mile in a blistering 46 4/5 seconds to close within six lengths around the final turn before losing by less than a length.

Jockey Corey Nakatani will now become his sixth rider in seven starts, and most likely, the second one besides Jamie Theriot to pilot him into the winner's circle.

Selections: 1) Dublin; 2) Noble's Promise; 3) Uh Oh Bango

COULD IT BE A "SUPER" 2010 DEBUT IN FLORIDA?

Another top two-year-old from last year returns to the track on Saturday as Super Saver tackles six other colts in the Tampa Bay Derby. As is the case with Lookin At Lucky, the odds might not be in his favor to pull out the victory, especially since the bay colt has yet to ever defeat a top-notch horse. The best colt he's ever knocked off is William's Kitten, the third-place finisher in the Holy Bull Stakes.

Still, he's widely considered one of the top three-year-olds due to his smashing five-length score in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs last November. He might not show his top form off the layoff this Saturday but if he runs back to his lone stakes victory in his final tune up for the Derby, he will definitely be one to watch on May 1st.

The horse everyone's been buzzing about down at Tampa Bay the last few weeks has been Odysseus, who wowed the local crowd with a smashing 15-length victory in an optional claiming allowance race on February 17.

Granted he didn't beat much that day as three of the other five horses in the race were eligible to be claimed, but he did improve his Beyer figure from an 85 (in his maiden victory) to 91. He poses a serious threat to the speedy Super Saver due to his ability to stalk the pace. Plus, he has a race over the Tampa Bay Downs track, which could be a quirky surface to newcomers.

The Sam F. Davis Stakes, the local prep for the Tampa Bay Derby, took place on February 13 and the second (Schoolyard Dreams) and third (Uptowncharlybrown) finishers from that race will take a crack at upsetting the probable top two favorites.

Uptowncharlybrown, who began his career winning his first two starts by a combined 15 lengths, literally walked out of the gate in the Sam F. Davis, spotting the early leaders three full lengths as the field raced by the stands the first time.

The big gangly colt had more trouble keeping up with the field down the backstretch, settling in last place, about six lengths off the pace. He finally kicked it into gear through the stretch missing second by a diminishing length.

A sharper effort is expected on Saturday, particularly after a 35 4/5 three- furlong work from the gate last week and the addition of blinkers. Look for him to be closer to the pace on Saturday, which could give the son of Limehouse an extra boost of confidence heading into the homestretch.

Schoolyard Dreams comes into the race with a pair of bullet workouts over the track. The son of Stephen Got Even should also get a slight jump on both Super Saver and Odysseus as he breaks inside the duo from post four. Still, it will be a tough task holding onto the lead.

Selections: 1) Uptowncharlybrown; 2) Super Saver; 3) Odysseus

CAN CARACORTADO KEEP HIS UNBEATEN STREAK ALIVE?

Caracortado, the California gelding with five consecutive victories, faces a pair of horses he beat in the Robert B. Lewis, along with four newcomers in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita.

It's hard to find holes in Caracortado's armor considering he has yet to lose, but he did fall into a perfect trip in the Robert B. Lewis, sitting behind fast early fractions that cooked both American Lion and Tiz Chrome.

Fortunately for his connections, that scenario could easily take place once again with Sidney's Candy taking over Tiz Chrome's role in a possible speed duel with American Lion.

Speaking of Sidney's Candy, he's likely to be the second choice in the wagering after annihilating the field in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes at seven furlongs. He's by far the fastest horse in the race but this will also be his first try going a distance of ground. If the chestnut colt can ration his speed in this 1 1/16-mile event, he could take the field gate to wire.

The John Sadler-trainee is bred to go long as his sire Candy Ride won the 1 1/4-mile Pacific Classic and his dam Fair Exchange is the only foal out of Exchange, a multiple Grade 1 winner. Furthermore, Exchange's dam, Wooly Willow, is a half-sister to the 1979 Queen's Plate winner, Steady Growth. Still, it's hard to wire a field around two-turns on Pro-Ride and American Lion won't make things easy for Sidney's Candy on the front end.

Dave in Dixie, the third-place finisher in the Robert B. Lewis has the come- from-behind style to win the San Felipe. However, he might not be good enough to take the top prize.

Interactif, trained by Todd Pletcher, is the wild card in the race. He has done most of his racing on the turf winning a pair of Grade 3 stakes events before running third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. He opened his three-year-old season by finishing second to Bim Bam in the Hallandale Beach Stakes at 1 1/16- miles.

Pletcher was mildly successful last year when his Take the Points finished second behind The Pamplemousse in that colt's first venture on Pro-Ride in the Sham. Can he do it again with Interactif?

Selections: 1) Caracortado; 2) Dave in Dixie; 3) Sidney's Candy

SATURDAY SPOT PLAYS

Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta both make their 2010 debuts on Saturday in preparation for next month's colossal showdown at Oaklawn Park, but there are a couple of first-time starters on the Fair Grounds and Santa Anita cards that bear watching.

Trackman, who runs in the seventh race at the Louisiana track, is a three-year- old son of Empire Maker out of Stormy Bear, who's a half-sister to champion turf horse Chief Bearhart. He'll be making his debut at about 1 1/16-miles on the grass and is 6-1 on the morning line.

Race three at Santa Anita for maidens at 6 1/2-furlongs sports Danzing Tribal, a four-year-old gelding by Tribal Rule, whose dam, Danzing Crown, is a half- sister to Chocolate Candy. In addition, Danzing Crown's second dam is a half- sister to the last Triple Crown winner, Affirmed.

Also at Santa Anita, go with an Elegant-Holy Flapper exacta box in race four.

Down in Florida at Gulfstream Park, take the three horse "Hit It Rich" in race 11.

Finally on Sunday, first-time starter Sistine is entered at both Aqueduct (race two) and Philadelphia Park (race five). She'll obviously scratch out of one of those races but she is an important filly to watch as she's a half-sister to The Green Monkey, the $16 million yearling purchased in 2006.

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Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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Best Horse Betting Online

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.