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06/23/2009 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Somewhere deep in the recesses of his psyche, Notre Dame head coach Charlie Weis might wish he had stayed in the NFL. Although research suggests that such a wish would be sillier than the belief that Jimmy Clausen is an elite-level college signal-caller.
Weis has been in South Bend for going on five seasons, and had he passed up that position for one running an NFL team back in 2005, well, he'd probably be out looking for a college job right now anyway. He's already outlasted his old buddy Romeo Crennel, fired as head coach of the Cleveland Browns after four years, and has now been at Notre Dame longer than 24 of the NFL's 32 current coaches have sat at their desks.
The average number of years on the job for those 32 lucky men? If you round up and give Mike Singletary (49ers) and Tom Cable (Raiders) full seasons in 2008, the league's 2009 sideline guides average 2.875 years of experience each.
Without question, the offseason that follows 2009 will bring another round of firings and hirings to keep the average you see above microscopically low.
Meaning that if Weis is looking for a job in the NFL again following another sub par year in the shadow of the Golden Dome, there should be plenty of vacancies.
Below we rank all 32 NFL head coaches, in order of most secure to least secure, with records during their current tenure in parentheses:
UNTOUCHABLE (2)
Bill Belichick, New England (102-42, 9 years) - He seems content for now, but someday, Belichick (under contract through 2013) will leave New England on his own terms.
Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh (22-10, 2 years) - Tomlin might find it tough to follow the successes of his first two years, but doesn't seem the type to rest on his laurels.
UNTOUCHABLE, JR. (6)
Andy Reid, Philadelphia (97-62-1, 10 years) - His favorable rating with Eagles fans goes through peaks and valleys, but the opinion of team owner Jeff Lurie is the only one that counts.
Ken Whisenhunt, Arizona (17-15, 2 years) - Getting one of the worst franchises in sports history within a defensive stop of a Super Bowl title should accrue you plenty of equity.
John Harbaugh, Baltimore (11-5, 1 year) - Love affair with Ravens supporters is running hot, though that was once the case with Brian Billick, too.
Mike Smith, Atlanta (11-5, 1 year) - Franchise is already thinking Super Bowl thanks to the immediate culture change Smith initiated last year.
Tony Sparano, Miami (11-5, 1 year) - Most of the high marks for the Dolphins' turnaround went to Bill Parcells, so it will be interesting to see how Sparano fares when Parcells makes his typical quick exit.
Tom Coughlin, N.Y. Giants (47-33, 5 years) - What once looked like the Hindenburg has reached its cruising altitude under Coughlin, though sentiment toward the gruff coach will change if the Giants underachieve in 2009.
(AT LEAST A LITTLE) TIME TO BUILD (10)
Todd Haley, Kansas City (1st Year) - Haley was hand-picked by new GM Scott Pioli, and the franchise has nowhere to go but up after posting a 6-26 mark over the past two years.
Jim Schwartz, Detroit (1st Year) - Another guy who should benefit initially from low expectations, Schwartz will need to earn a little more say over personnel decisions in order to survive long-term.
Jim Mora, Seattle (1st Year) - Mora's big mouth got him in trouble in Atlanta, but he also proved he could coach and that players would respond to his style.
Mike Singletary, San Francisco (5-4, 1 year) - He seemed to find his footing after the pants-dropping incident, but Singletary's fate could be tied to the all-important Shaun Hill/Alex Smith decision this summer.
Raheem Morris, Tampa Bay (1st Year) - Do you fire Jon Gruden to hire Raheem Morris? If the 32-year-old Morris fails, that question will get louder among Bucs fans.
Josh McDaniels, Denver (1st Year) - Everything the 33-year-old McDaniels has touched thus far has turned to...well, not gold...but remember that he has yet to coach a game and has the vital support of owner Pat Bowlen.
Rex Ryan, N.Y. Jets (1st Year) - Gang Green fans love Ryan so far, but we'll see how the free spirit handles the New York spotlight during the team's first prolonged losing streak.
Eric Mangini, Cleveland (1st Year) - Mangini will be given some time, but a major absence of talent and rumors of a player revolt are bad signs.
Steve Spagnuolo, St. Louis (1st Year) - Spagnuolo should have a long leash in order to clean up this mess, but the fact that the franchise is for sale could have him a bit nervous.
Jim Caldwell, Indianapolis (1st Year) - Caldwell was a failure as a head coach at Wake Forest, and if the many changes he has made from the Tony Dungy regime backfire, there is going to be plenty of Indy-area backlash.
GONE ONLY IF DISASTER STRIKES (4)
Lovie Smith, Chicago (45-35, 5 years) - Smith hasn't been back to the playoffs since signing a four-year contract extension following the 2006 season, but Bears ownership is known for both patience and fiscal restraint when it comes to removing coaches.
Mike McCarthy, Green Bay (27-21, 3 years) - Embattled GM Ted Thompson would probably get his walking papers first, but a repeat of last year's 6-10 would ratchet up the anti-McCarthy sentiment as well.
Sean Payton, New Orleans (25-23, 3 years) - Sure, Payton's offense is great, but a third straight playoff-less year will have many questioning his viability as a head coach.
Jeff Fisher, Tennessee (128-102, 15 years) - Fisher (under contract until 2011) will probably be allowed to leave on his own terms at some point, but five straight years without a postseason win doesn't sit well with some.
WIN OR ELSE (10)
John Fox, Carolina (63-49, 7 years) - Fox was also on the hot seat last year, but the Panthers' NFC South title prompted his return to Charlotte. Still, last season's home playoff rout against the Cardinals was galling to many, a large portion of Fox's staff was jettisoned this past offseason, and Bill Cowher's presence still looms large in the Carolinas. Fox has a lot of work to do in 2009.
Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville (50-46, 6 years) - Del Rio received all of the wrong kind of attention last year, when a team believed by some to have Super Bowl-type talent plummeted to 5-11. Though the Jags have had their successes, Del Rio has just one playoff win and no division titles in six years, and more of the same in 2009 could lead owner Wayne Weaver to question whether Del Rio's message has grown stale.
Norv Turner, San Diego (19-13, 2 years) - Turner has won back-to-back AFC West titles and presided over three of the 10 playoff wins in Chargers franchise history, but there is no getting past the perception that San Diego has underachieved on his watch. The Bolts seem to have too much talent to endure the type of year it would take to give Turner the keys to the street, but judging by his team's sometimes listless play of the past two seasons, don't put it past him.
Gary Kubiak, Houston (22-26, 3 years) - The Texans have made strides under Kubiak, particularly on offense, but have yet to be a realistic part of the playoff picture in their seven seasons of existence. If that doesn't change this year, Texans owner Bob McNair is almost guaranteed to give Kubiak the boot.
Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati (46-49-1, 6 years) - Yes, coaches deserve to be graded on a curve in Cincinnati thanks to the organization's terrible mismanagement, and Lewis deserves some credit for winning more games with the Bengals than everyone except Sam Wyche and Paul Brown himself. But Lewis also deserves some blame for allowing the team to descend to the 4-11-1 abyss last year, and it's hard to imagine him surviving another year like that one. Even in Cincinnati.
Wade Phillips, Dallas (22-10, 2 years) - There was some question about whether Phillips would survive when the Cowboys followed up a 13-3 season with a 2007 playoff loss to the Giants, so the fact that Phillips remained employed after last year's 9-7 was something of an upset. Phillips knows anything less than double-digit regular season wins, plus at least one postseason victory, will make 2009 his final year in Dallas.
Dick Jauron, Buffalo (21-27, 3 years) - Bills owner Ralph Wilson appeared pretty close to canning Jauron after Buffalo went 2-8 in its final 10 games last year, but the economic climate probably saved the ex-Bears washout for one more year. Jauron went all-in by signing Terrell Owens for 2009, but it's doubtful that he'll make enough of a difference in a deep AFC East for his latest head coach to remain employed.
Brad Childress, Minnesota (24-24, 3 years) - Forget being beloved. If he's lucky and this Brett Favre thing works out, Childress might be able to start on the road toward being tolerated in Minnesota. The Vikings won a bad NFC North last year, and the fans thought so little of that title that the team subsequently struggled to sell out its first home playoff game in eight years. The ill will is directed almost totally to Childress, and declining ticket sales - more so that the coach's poor strategic and personnel decisions - will eventually prompt team owner Zygi Wilf to wield the axe.
Tom Cable, Oakland (4-8, 1 year) - The best-case scenario for a Raiders head coach is to be permitted to move on before you are fired. Jon Gruden parlayed a few years of decent success into a job with a real-life, professional franchise in Tampa Bay, and successors Bill Callahan, Norv Turner, Art Shell, and Lane Kiffin have not been nearly as lucky. Cable did some nice things once he got his feet underneath him in Oakland last year, but is incremental progress, as opposed to an immediate (and unlikely) transformation into a true playoff contender going to be enough for team owner Al Davis? History says no way.
Jim Zorn, Washington (8-8, 1 year) - Look at it this way, because Redskins owner Daniel Snyder probably does. If Zorn was originally hired as the offensive coordinator, and the offense continued to take a step back in Zorn's second year in that role, wouldn't Snyder have fired him anyway? If the Skins don't make the playoffs out of the brutally difficult NFC East this season, and chances are they won't, there is almost no chance the impulsive Snyder keeps him around for another year at the expense of hiring a bigger name.
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da
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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