Breeders' Cup Classic has the speed

Horseracing Betting Lines

11/01/2011 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Going into Monday's post position draw for the Breeders' Cup I already had Havre de Grace penciled in as the 5-2 favorite for the $5 million Classic. So I was surprised that Churchill Downs handicapper Mike Battaglia did a misdirection on the morning-line for the 1 1/4-mile race.

The official morning-line for the Classic has three-year-old colt Uncle Mo at 5-2 and four-year-old filly Havre de Grace second at 3-1. Remember, Uncle Mo has just two wins this year while the filly has five with a victory over older males.

"I wasn't surprised he was made the (5-2) favorite," the colt's trainer Todd Pletcher said. "I anticipated him to be in that range somewhere at 3-1 or so."

Both horses are speed runners as is Uncle Mo's stablemate Stay Thirsty.

"He's proven at the mile and a quarter, and I think he's a horse that might have a lot to say at the end of it," Pletcher noted about Stay Thirsty.

All three horses drew outside posts in the 13-horse Classic field. Uncle Mo will be ridden by John Velazquez from post 12 and Javier Castellano has the mount on Stay Thirsty, 12-1 in the program, from the nine hole.

"I'm OK with it," Pletcher said about the favorite's post. "He gets away from the gate pretty well. I think he's doing as well as he could possibly be doing. We're really pleased with the way he ran in the Kelso and the way he's trained since. He's settled here well and we're optimistic. It's a tall order. We've come a long way since the beginning of May (sidelined by liver ailment) and we're hoping we can get all the way there.

"Stay Thirsty's doing great. He came out of his (Sunday) work super. He was really sharp this morning and had a great energy level."

Havre de Grace, ranked first in the National Thoroughbred Poll, will break from post 10 with Ramon Dominguez again in the saddle.

"I think we're in the perfect spot. A lot will depend on how fast they go up front, but we're happy with it," the filly's owner Rick Porter said.

The 5-1 third pick is European runner So You Think. The five-year-old drew post five with Ryan Moore getting the riding assignment from trainer Aidan O'Brien.

A winner of more than $7.5 million with 12 wins in 19 career starts, So You Think has never raced on a dirt track and I don't expect the New Zealand-bred is going win on Saturday.

Game On Dude, trained by Bob Baffert, is 10-1 with Chantal Sutherland set to ride from post eight.

"Game on Dude is a speed horse, so it doesn't really matter where he is," Baffert said.

Baffert's other Classic runner Prayer for Relief has been withdrawn from the race after spiking a fever.

Breaking from the far outside will be Pennsylvania Derby winner To Honor and Serve. The three-year-old colt is 12-1 with Jose Lezcano riding. Trained by Bill Mott, To Honor and Serve is another speed horse who will either set the pace or press it.

Mott's other horse is 2010 Belmont Stakes winner Drosselmeyer who is 15-1 in the program and will be ridden by Mike Smith who won the Classic two years ago with Zenyatta. Drosselmeyer was second to Flat Out in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and is a solid play on Saturday.

"My post positions are fine. With that long run down to the turn, I think it is ideal for To Honor and Serve. I think the 3 is also good for Drosselmeyer," Mott said.

Flat Out has drawn post two with Alex Solis riding. Trained by Scooter Dickey, the five-year-old is 6-1 in the morning-line off the Gold Cup win.

"We're in the gate, that's all I care about. If I could have chosen I would have probably gone a little further outside," Dickey said about the post, "but we're just glad to be in there. It'll be up to (jockey) Alex (Solis). He's just going to have to get him a place and see how the pace develops. It's good. We're in the gate. We get to run."

Flat Out's running style appears to be ideal for the 1 1/4-miles. With two wins over the dirt at Belmont Park and two seconds at Saratoga this summer the veteran looks to be my selection for the 28th Breeders' Cup Classic.

Flat Out is owned by Preston Stables with only 12 lifetime starts. His bankroll stands at $1,109,713 with five wins and three runner-up finishes. Following just one start in 2010, an allowance victory in December at Fair Grounds, the horse has really come into his own this year.

Dickey's charge should lay just a few lengths off the lead during the Classic. He'll swing wide, if needed, around the final turn and drive to the wire giving Solis his second Classic win.

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Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

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Big East Conference odds

Work left to do: Villanova, Syracuse, DePaul, West Virginia, Providence

Notre Dame and Louisville appear to have done enough to make the move, so we'll make them locks. The Cardinals, despite a modest RPI, are trending way up and have clinched at least a tie for third in the Big East, which should be more than enough with their pair of big road wins. Villanova got back to .500 and gets back to more solid footing. Syracuse got a very important road win and crippled a fellow contender in the process. West Virginia's fate could be in its hands Tuesday at Pitt.

Work left to do:

Villanova [18-9 (7-7), RPI: 21, SOS: 5] Pounded Rutgers to get back to .500. If Cats can get their last two (at UConn, vs. Syracuse), that should be enough with strong computer numbers and a host of wins away from The Pavilion. The Cats have beaten Texas and swept the Big 5 (never easy in Philly), but have a couple of losses to bubble teams (Xavier, Drexel), too. I still think they'll be OK, possibly even at 8-8.

Syracuse [20-8 (9-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 62] History says 10 wins will be plenty, but it might be hard for the Orange to get that last one with a final two vs. G'town, which is trying to win the league title, and at Villanova, which will be desperate for a W. The relative lack of nonconference heft and the weak computer numbers are still concerns, but the Orange have won four in a row and got a very, very big win at Providence on Saturday.

DePaul [16-12 (8-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 18] Beat Cincy and should get past South Florida to get to 9-7, but then what? They have beaten Kansas and Cal (right after the DeVon Hardin injury) earlier this season, but also have lost to Bradley and Purdue, among others. They'll likely need a couple of BE tourney wins, too, but we'll see ...

West Virginia [19-7 (8-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 125] The game at Pitt on Tuesday night could decide the Mountaineers' fate (barring a deep tournament run). They can still get to 9-7 in the Big East without it by beating Cincinnati, but the nine wins would be against UConn, Villanova, St. John's, South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and the Bearcats. Beating bubble foes is fine, but where's the beef? Outside of beating PG-less UCLA in nonconference play (still a top quality win), there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). WVU vs. Syracuse would be an interesting debate, as the teams don't play in the Big East regular season. WVU has the best win, but Cuse has played the much better schedule.

Providence [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 33] The Friars likely saw their at-large hopes die at home in the four-point loss to Syracuse, barring an unexpected run to the Big East semis or more. The RPI, bad already, won't be helped by playing St. John's and South Florida in the final two league games.

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