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06/07/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There is nothing more deflating for an NBA team than watching a great shooter get a good look from the three-point line.
The ball comes off the hand and almost seems frozen in time for a second or two before splashing through the net, never touching the cylinder.
It's an almost helpless feeling.
At some point in the NBA Finals, you knew the Boston Celtics were going to exploit a mismatch in the backcourt.
Kobe Bryant may be the best on-ball defender in professional basketball but the aging Derek Fisher was going to have trouble matching up with either Rajon Rondo or Ray Allen.
As one of the best shooters in the history of the game, a date with Bryant's torturous defense used to be a virtual guarantee for Allen, but the emergence of Rondo has made things difficult for Lakers coach Phil Jackson.
It's almost a "pick your poison" type of decision for Jackson. Kobe can stifle just about anyone but if you put him on Rondo, Allen is going to get a lot of open looks. Shut down Ray's outside shooting, and you open up the lane for Rondo's penetration.
Jackson was clearly more concerned with Rondo's ability to get to the rim, and made his decision to place Bryant on Rondo in Game 1.
"Teams have done that all year," Boston coach Doc Rivers said. "It's nothing new putting a big guy on Rondo and a small guy on Ray. And every time we do that we feel we can give Ray shots."
Jackson's roll of the dice worked and the Lakers earned a rather emphatic Game 1 victory as Allen struggled with foul trouble and was unable to take advantage of the 6-foot-1 Fisher's spotty defense.
"The other night was frustrating," Allen said of Game 1 "It was tough just trying to adjust the referees on the sideline. Physically I felt great. I was getting to the spots I needed to, just never really got in a great rhythm."
The NBA playoffs are all about adjustments between contests. Jackson stood pat in Game 2 and Rivers made sure his team understood what went wrong, reminding his players there was a significant mismatch to exploit. The result was Allen setting an NBA Finals record by sinking eight three-point shots in a 103-94 Game 2 win over the Lakers.
"I'm trying not to do too much," Allen said when describing Rivers' game plan. "Getting Fisher, run him off screens and forcing their bigs to help. That's somewhat the thought process. Making a hard cut from one side of the basket to the other."
Allen made his first seven from long range in the first half of Game 2 on the way to an incredible 27-point effort by halftime, boosting the Celtics to a 54-48 advantage.
"I thought they (Lakers) did everything they could to keep me from shooting threes and they worked tirelessly," Allen said. "We were setting great screens and I was getting to my spots."
The Lakers adjusted their defense on Allen after the first half but the damage was done. A deflated Celtics team was rejuvenated and able to take advantage of Bryant's own foul trouble to hold off LA.
"He was unbelievable," Pierce said of Allen. "He just came out here and shot lights out. You could tell he was frustrated from the last game because of the foul trouble and I think he showed us that Ray Allen is a future Hall of Famer and one of the greatest shooters to ever play."
Allen canned the record breaker with 4:40 left in the third quarter, helping Boston even the best-of-seven series and seize home-court advantage. He finished the game with 32 points, going 8-of-11 from three-point range, breaking the mark he shared with Houston's Kenny Smith (1995) and Chicago's Scottie Pippen (1997).
"I don't know what record it is that people are telling me that I got, but it's great to have," Allen said after the game. "Great to be able to look back on it and say I did that. This is definitely the time. There is no better place, moment or time to play a game, to win a game than the finals."
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Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.
Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.
Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.
If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.
Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.
By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.
In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.
So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.
While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.
There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.
In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:
SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.
XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.
XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.
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